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Bucs Look to Give Saints Unhappy Welcome


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(Best E Casino) - The New Orleans Saints may have saved their season with a big win this past Monday night. However, if recent trends are any indication, they may have a hard time sustaining that momentum in this Sunday's crucial divisional clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.

Although New Orleans still resides at the bottom of the standings in the competitive NFC South, the team has revived its flickering postseason hopes with a two-game win streak highlighted by Monday's impressive 51-29 home rout of the Green Bay Packers at the Superdome. Now 6-5 on the season, the Saints are two games out of first place in the division, but only one off the pace of a three-team logjam for the conference's second Wild Card berth.

A victory over the playoff-hopeful and similarly 8-3 Buccaneers, who currently own a share of the top spot in the NFC South with Carolina, would go a long way towards boosting New Orleans' hopes for playing in January. But that may be a task easier said than done.

Home teams have reigned supreme in the NFC South throughout this 2008 campaign, as the division sports a stellar 21-2 record as the host entering this week's play. Tampa Bay has been particularly tough in those situations, having won all five of its home tests so far this year and compiling an 11-2 ledger at Raymond James Stadium in regular-season games since the start of last season.

The Bucs are on a roll of their own as well with three consecutive wins, albeit against a somewhat suspect cast of opponents. Two of those triumphs have come against league doormats Kansas City and Detroit, with a more validating 19-13 home verdict over NFC North co-leader Minnesota sandwiched in between.

Tampa Bay spotted the still-winless Lions an early 17-point lead in its most recent matchup, before arising from its slumber to post a 38-20 decision. Veteran quarterback Jeff Garcia sparked the rally with two touchdown passes late in the first half, then the Buccaneers put the game away by scoring on a punt return and cornerback Ronde Barber's interception runback during the third quarter.

The Saints also broke open a close contest last week with a flurry of points in the second half. New Orleans put up touchdowns on four of their first five possessions after intermission against the Packers, and matched a franchise record for the highest scoring total in a single game.

As usual, Drew Brees was the driving force behind the Saints' offensive eruption. The prolific quarterback shredded a well-regarded Green Bay pass defense for 323 yards and a season-high four touchdown strikes while completing 20 of his 26 throws.

Brees directs an explosive New Orleans offense that leads the NFL in passing yards and total yards, while the Bucs counter with a defense that ranks second overall against the pass and has yielded the third-fewest points in the league. The normally airtight unit did have its struggles containing the Saints earlier this season, however, with Brees amassing 343 yards and a trio of scoring passes to lift the Saints to a 24-20 victory over Tampa Bay at the Superdome in Week 1.

SERIES HISTORY

New Orleans has a 20-13 lead in its all-time series with Tampa Bay, including the above-mentioned 24-20 victory when the teams met at the Superdome in Week 1. The Buccaneers swept a home-and-home with its division rival in 2007, including a 31-14 win at Raymond James Stadium in Week 2, and a 27-23 decision in New Orleans in Week 13. The Saints last won in Tampa in 2006.

Buccaneers head coach Jon Gruden has a 7-7 career record against the Saints, including 6-7 since taking over in Tampa prior to the 2002 season. New Orleans' Sean Payton is 3-2 against both Gruden and the Bucs as a head coach.

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL

The Saints weren't shy about airing it out against Tampa Bay in their previous meeting, so expect Brees' (3574 passing yards, 22 TD, 11 INT) deadly-accurate right arm to get plenty of work again on Sunday. The two-time Pro Bowl quarterback has endured his share of humbling moments on the road this year, however, having thrown seven interceptions and only five touchdowns in the team's five away games. With usual go-to receiver Marques Colston's (16 receptions, 1 TD) production dipping due to injuries, the unheralded Lance Moore (57 receptions, 724 yards, 7 TD) has emerged as the top target in New Orleans' aerial assault. The one-time practice-squad member burned the Packers for a career-best 115 yards and two touchdowns on Monday, including a 70-yard scoring connection with Brees in the opening quarter. Tight end Jeremy Shockey (35 receptions) has started to make an impact recently as well. Now fully recovered from hernia surgery that forced him to miss three games earlier on, the boisterous ex-Giant has garnered 11 catches over the past two weeks. Brees almost always receives terrific protection from a strong offensive line that has allowed just nine sacks this year, a startling number for a team that passes so much.

New Orleans' already-potent passing offense may get another dangerous weapon back on Sunday, as versatile running back Reggie Bush (294 rushing yards, 42 receptions, 8 total TD) appears to close to returning from a knee procedure that has rendered him inactive for the past three games. The former Heisman Trophy winner was a handful for the Bucs back in Week 1, racking up 112 receiving yards and a go-ahead touchdown on a game-high eight catches. If he plays on Sunday, Bush will likely be worked in slowly with Pierre Thomas (325 rushing yards, 6 TD, 19 receptions) performing well as of late. The sophomore back is coming off an 88-yard, two-touchdown rushing effort against Green Bay and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry over the last two weeks, providing a nice boost to the Saints' 27th-ranked running game (92.4 ypg). Thomas' development has left mainstay Deuce McAllister (304 rushing yards, 11 receptions, 5 total TD), the club's all-time leading rusher and touchdown scorer, fighting for scraps in a now-crowded backfield.

Although the Buccaneers are allowing just 174.6 passing yards per week (2nd overall), Brees showed that the Tampa secondary isn't bulletproof by throwing for three long touchdowns in the season opener. Games like that are generally an anomaly, however, for a defense that has been able to compensate for the declining skills of perennial Pro Bowlers Barber (46 tackles, 2 INT, 2 sacks) and weakside linebacker Derrick Brooks (49 tackles, 1 INT) with an influx of talented young players and the savvy leadership of the two veteran stalwarts. One of those rising stars is second-year end Gaines Adams (30 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 INT), the team's leading sacker who will need to be in Brees' face on Sunday if the Bucs are to slow down New Orleans' high-powered offense. Reserve lineman Jimmy Wilkerson (17 tackles, 4 sacks), who had two sacks in the Detroit game, will be counted on in that area as well. Tampa Bay only took down Brees once when these teams met in September.

The Buccaneers are tough to run on as well, with opponents averaging only 100.1 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per attempt against a defense that's also surrendered a league-low one touchdown on the ground. Tampa held Minnesota's Adrian Peterson to a respectable 85 yards on 19 carries two weeks ago, ending a string of four straight 100-yard outings for the superstar back, despite physical strong safety Jermaine Phillips (33 tackles, 1 INT) sitting out the contest with a fractured forearm. The team is hopeful he'll be available for Sunday's key test and provide support for a sturdy front seven anchored by speedy middle linebacker and top tackler Barrett Ruud (85 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT).

WHEN THE BUCCANEERS HAVE THE BALL

Tampa Bay has displayed pretty good balance on offense throughout the year, but a season-ending injury to running back Earnest Graham in the Minnesota game may force Gruden to place a heavier emphasis on the short-armed but crafty Garcia (1783 passing yards, 7 TD, 3 INT). The 38-year-old quarterback is putting together another efficient season under center, having overcome an early-year benching to complete nearly 70 percent of his throws, many of which have landed in the hands of rejuvenated wide receiver Antonio Bryant (54 receptions, 2 TD). The Bucs' 11th-ranked passing game (227.4 ypg) can't match the Saints in terms of production or big-play ability, but Garcia has been effective at spreading the ball around to his pass-catchers, with reliable wideout Ike Hilliard (36 receptions, 4 TD), running back Warrick Dunn (31 receptions) and tight end Jerramy Stevens (23 receptions, 2 TD) all making steady contributions. Tampa Bay will have to shore up its protection after permitting six sacks to the defensively-challenged Lions last Sunday, with Garcia losing fumbles on two of those hits.

Luckily for Garcia, the Saints haven't generated much in the way of pressure this season, a contributing factor to the team's No. 24 rating in pass defense (235.1 ypg). New Orleans has totaled a mediocre 20 sacks in 11 games, with ends Will Smith (38 tackles, 3 sacks) and Bobby McCray (20 tackles, 4 sacks) going through inconsistent years. A maligned and injury-plagued secondary did intercept the Packers' Aaron Rodgers three times on Monday, with cornerback Jason David (15 tackles, 3 INT) emerging from Payton's doghouse to snare two of those picks. Fellow corner Randall Gay (35 tackles, 1 sack, 13 PD) had a strong night as well, as the ex-Patriot amassed three pass breakups along with a sack.

New Orleans hasn't exactly been a stone wall against the run either, having given up an average of 110.8 rushing yards per game (18th overall) for the year. A season-ending triceps tear to end Charles Grant last month has weakened the team up front, where rookie tackle Sedrick Ellis (19 tackles, 2 sacks) hasn't had quite the impact expected of a top-10 draft choice. One bright spot for the Saints has been the play of offseason pickup Jonathan Vilma (87 tackles, 1 INT), who has remained injury-free and given the defense a rangy presence at middle linebacker.

Tampa Bay had success moving the ball on the ground in its Week 1 encounter with the Saints, but the loss of Graham (563 rushing yards, 4 TD, 23 receptions), who had 91 of the team's 146 rushing yards in that game, is a blow to the backfield's depth. The Bucs did get former NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Carnell Williams back in action last week following a 14-month absence due to a severe knee injury, but his rust was evident in a 16-carry, 27-yard showing against the porous Lions. The 33-year-old Dunn (566 rushing yards, 2 TD) has enjoyed a nice resurgence in his second tour of duty with the club, but the smallish back isn't the type to wear down a defense by grinding out yards up the middle. Still, he's delivered back-to-back games of over 118 yards from scrimmage since being inserted into a featured role.

FANTASY FOCUS

It goes without saying to start Brees this and every week, but Garcia's a quarterback with whom fantasy players usually have to pick and choose their spots. In a game that could turn out to be more of a shootout affair than one normally associated with the Buccaneers, this could be one of those times. Dunn's stock is clearly on the rise and draws a favorable matchup that makes the veteran a worthy play, but Bush owners should continue to use caution with the gimpy running back. Thomas has been a factor with increased duty over the past few games and may be the best New Orleans option at the position. Moore has quickly gone from intriguing waiver-wire pickup into starting material, and there's little reason not to continue riding the hot hand for another week. Colston owners shouldn't give up on the one-time must-start, although he's more of a wild-card type at the moment, while Shockey's finally beginning to deliver on the promise that made the tight end a trendy target of draftniks prior to the season. Bryant is the lone Tampa receiver who offers steady production on his team, with the remainder of the lot a week-to-week crapshoot.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Was last week's outburst a sign that the Saints are ready to surge back into the fray in a wide-open NFC South? The answer is a definite maybe. If New Orleans is as precise and explosive offensively as it showed against the Packers, it's obviously going to be awfully hard for the Buccaneers to keep up. Whether New Orleans can perform at that level for a second straight week is another matter, however. The Saints have not been a good road team this year, and the costly mistakes that plagued the club in some previous outings could very well creep up against a Tampa squad that has shown a knack for coming up with game-changing plays in these types of situations many times in the past. With critical road tests at division-rivals Carolina and Atlanta over the next two weeks, it's imperative that the Bucs hold serve on their home grounds on Sunday. By getting a key turnover or two on the defensive end and a few clutch field goals from kicker Matt Bryant, they just might be able to do so.

Best E Casino Predicted Outcome: Buccaneers 26, Saints 24

November 28, 2008, at 01:06 PM ET
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