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 Division I College Football Sports Betting News

 

The Best and Worst of Times


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Philadelphia, PA (Best E Casino) - I usually begin each column reviewing a huge upset or the key matchup from the previous week, but this time, the opening story involves the highs and lows of college football wagering.

It's very easy to pick a winner when the point spread is insanely inaccurate, and that was the case in last Saturday's New Mexico-Tulsa contest. The Golden Hurricane came into the game off a pair of road scores against two less-than- stellar opponents - UAB and North Texas. Todd Graham's club had outscored the Blazers and Mean Green, 101-48, but the team was out of the national spotlight coming off a bye week, while other non-BCS squads, such as East Carolina and BYU, were heavily in the public eye with tremendous victories over top-notch competition.

Tulsa opened up as the 14.5-point favorite, but the public jumped all over New Mexico after seeing the Lobos dispose of the high-flying Arizona Wildcats, 36-28, the previous week. The spread dropped to 10 points shortly after the early line was announced. Unfortunately, the folks backing Rocky Long's club forgot UNM had zero answers in the two home losses to TCU and Texas A&M, and only defeated Arizona because the Wildcats committed five turnovers.

Graham's team was playing its first home game of the year after winning 10 of its 12 home games the last two seasons. Meanwhile, New Mexico was out on the road for the first time in 2008.

The line for this matchup was a classic case of "what have you done for me lately?" The majority of the gamblers were all over New Mexico, but the smart late money went to Tulsa as the Hurricane ended as the 11-point favorite.

How did the game play out? The Golden Hurricane reached the end zone on its first four drives, opening up a quick 28-0 lead en route to a 56-14 rout.

Sometimes it's best to stay away from a club that had been listless for a couple of games before picking up a huge win, as was the case with New Mexico. It's also important to look at the boxscores. If one did their homework correctly, they would have noticed that the Wildcats outplayed the Lobos despite the eight-point loss.

Not every game can be a winning one, and the San Jose State-Stanford contest proved just how fickle betting college football could be.

The Spartans, seven-point underdogs, were in front by a 10-0 count after Brandon Rutley scored on a four-yard TD run midway through the second quarter. Stanford, however, closed the gap to three with less than one minute to go before the half.

Three Aaron Zagory field goals gave the Cardinal a 16-10 lead late in the fourth quarter, and the San Jose State cover still seemed well at hand. Down by six with the ball, all the Spartans had to do to secure the ATS win was to maintain possession by securing a couple of first downs. Unfortunately, they went four-and-out, and Stanford gained control at San Jose State's 33-yard line with 1:41 to go.

The Cardinal ran the ball three straight times gaining 26 yards in the process. The ball was at the seven with 54 seconds remaining, and San Jose State out of timeouts. No one could have imagined anything else but Tavita Pritchard taking a knee for two plays to run out the clock.

That was not to be the case. Pritchard handed the ball off twice to Toby Gerhart, who took it into the end zone on the second carry and Stanford proved victorious by a 23-10 score, thus covering the seven-point spread.

There are many instances when the underdog covers with a late meaningless touchdown, but it's extremely rare for the dog to go down to the ATS defeat when the favorite scores a TD inside the final minute, when all they had to do was sit on the ball to end the game.

ANOTHER BRUTAL LOSS

When talking about tough beats, the folks that played the UNDER in the Boston College-UCF game had to be wondering what they had done to deserve such a dreadful fate. The number, which ended up between 39 and 40, seemed safe and secure when the first half ended with the Knights in front, 7-3.

The Eagles picked up a pair of third quarter touchdowns and then scored on their first possession in the fourth to bring the total up to 31 points. The UNDER seemed to be in good shape as the two teams still needed to score both a touchdown and a field goal inside the final five minutes.

Boston College tacked on that field goal with 3:51 left, but the worst was yet to come.

The Eagles intercepted a Michael Greco pass and had a 1st-and-10 from UCF's 12-yard line with about 3:30 to go. Three rushes later, Boston College had the ball on the three-yard line. Not only did the Eagles hit paydirt to send the game OVER the total, they did so on a pass play on 4th-and-1.

The Knights, who had allowed only 17 points in their previous five quarters, gave up 31 to Boston College in the second half alone. It's very easy to count your winnings when your wager seems in the bag at halftime, but football is a four-quarter game, and as Yogi Berra so eloquently stated many years ago, "it ain't over 'til it's over."

A ONCE PROMISING SEASON TURNS TO DUST

It's a shame when a starting quarterback gets hurt in the middle of a contest and the backup has little chance of maintaining the positive momentum. That's what happened in the North Carolina-Virginia Tech game.

When T.J. Yates left midway through the third quarter, the Tar Heels were leading 10-3, outgaining the Hokies 161-100. Redshirt freshman Mike Paulus replaced the injured Yates, and even though RB Greg Little took it to the house on Paulus' first play from scrimmage, not many North Carolina backers were confident the team would get the job done the rest of the way.

Turns out they were right, as Paulus completed almost as many passes to the Hokies (two) as he did to his teammates (three). Virginia Tech came from behind to bang home the 20-17 victory.

More bad news hit Chapel Hill on Monday, when it was announced that Yates would miss at six weeks of action with a fractured left ankle. All the promise of a fantastic year is now out the window, as the Tar Heels could easily lose their next two games to Miami-Florida and Connecticut.

THE NEW TOP 10 AND LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Florida takes over the top spot in the new Jeff Frank Top 10 after obliterating Tennessee on the road. USC drops to number two after a bye week. Here are the new rankings:

1) Florida, 105.5; 2) USC, 105; 3) Georgia, 102.5; 4-T) Oklahoma and Texas, 101.5; 6-T) Missouri and Penn State, 99; 8-T) Texas Tech and LSU, 96.5; 10) Wisconsin, 95.5

The overall record stands at 17-14, with an 8-6 mark in key plays (Last week 2-0, W - Tulsa and Troy) and a 9-8 record in secondary selections (Last week 1-4, W - Toledo, L - North Carolina, Auburn, San Jose State and Ole Miss).

THIS WEEK'S TOP PLAY

Florida is coming off a huge 30-6 win over Tennessee, but the final score could have easily been much closer if the Volunteers hadn't turned the ball over twice inside the Gators five-yard line in the first half of play.

The Florida offense, for all its sizzle, has yet to fire on all cylinders. Urban Meyer's club has scored just five offensive touchdowns in its last nine quarters. It's true the competition has been somewhat tough the last two weeks, but the Gators do not look as dominant as they did last year at this time.

Ole Miss comes to Gainesville off an incredibly sloppy 23-17 loss to Vanderbilt. The Rebels committed six miscues and were -4 in the turnover ratio department.

Last year, the Rebels were 23-point home underdogs vs. the Gators, and racked up 390 total yards in their six-point loss. In addition, Florida has not covered the game immediately following Tennessee since 2001.

Take Ole Miss plus the points.

The other key play this week comes out of Philadelphia, where Temple hosts Western Michigan. The Owls will be without quarterback Adam DiMichele, who'll miss the next three-to-six weeks with an injured right shoulder.

Backup Chester Stewart relieved DiMichele early in last week's game vs. Penn State and completed 16-of-30 for 116 yards and three interceptions. Even though facing the Broncos is an easier task than going up against the Nittany Lions, having a redshirt freshman making his first career start is not how Al Golden would have liked to begin a key stretch of conference games. It also doesn't help when the team's leading ground gainer is the injured quarterback, and the rest of the rushers are averaging just 2.5 ypc.

Western Michigan has won three straight after falling to Nebraska in the opener. Quarterback Tim Hiller, who is completing over 70% of his passes, has thrown 14 touchdowns against just two picks this season. In addition, the ground game is picking up yards at a 5.4 ypc clip, which is good for second in the MAC behind Toledo. Look for the Broncos to put up at least 28 points against a battered Temple defense en route to an easy road victory.

Take Western Michigan minus the points.

Secondary selections this week include Miami-Florida, Rice, Texas and UAB.

September 23, 2008, at 03:50 PM ET
<-- Ball State WR Love suffers career-ending injury
Report: USC CB Wright has fractured vertebra -->

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