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Garrard Attempts to Lead Jags Past Bills


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(Best E Casino) - The Jacksonville Jaguars have a healthy starting quarterback under center again for their stretch run towards a playoff berth, which continues when they host the Buffalo Bills this Sunday afternoon at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.

Jacksonville has won two games in a row and three of four to improve to 7-3 on the season, good enough for sole possession of second place in the AFC South. Indianapolis is still at the top at 8-2, while 6-4 Tennessee is third in the division standings.

The Jaguars have been riding the success of their defense the past few weeks, but now quarterback David Garrard is back under center after missing some time with an injured left ankle. Garrard threw a pair of touchdown passes in last weekend's 24-17 home win over the San Diego Chargers and still has yet to throw an interception this season.

Head coach Jack Del Rio must make sure his players don't overlook Buffalo with the division-rival Colts on the schedule the following Sunday. The matchup with the Bills is a perfect trap game for the Jaguars, who must not take the Bills lightly even though they rank towards the bottom of nearly every statistical category this season.

Buffalo is 5-5 this season but is surprisingly still alive in the postseason hunt. However, it had a four-game winning streak halted with Sunday's 56-10 loss to the unbeaten New England Patriots at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

The Bills couldn't stop or even contain Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who singed the defense for 373 yards and five touchdown passes, including four to superstar wide receiver Randy Moss.

This Sunday, the Bills will stick with starting quarterback J.P. Losman despite his past two mediocre games. Losman may have received a pass for the New England game after he was 15-of-26 throwing for 173 yards and an interception against the league's fourth-ranked defense, producing a passer rating of 74.7. He was also sacked four times.

Losman, though, faces another tough defense predicated on rushing the passer and making offenses one-dimensional. Losman must be at the top of his game on Sunday, especially since Buffalo's offense has managed just 13 points in each of its last two road wins (Dolphins, Jets).

Jacksonville also has a two-game lead over the Bills for an AFC Wild Card spot with six games left on the regular season schedule.

SERIES HISTORY

The Bills lead the all-time regular season series with the Jaguars, 4-2, including a 27-24 home triumph when the teams met in Week 12 of last season. Jacksonville won the previous meeting, also at Ralph Wilson Stadium, earning a 13-10 Week 1 win on a last-second touchdown pass from Byron Leftwich to Ernest Wilford in Week 1 of the 2004 season. Buffalo is 2-0 in Jacksonville all-time, winning there in 2001 and 2003.

The Jaguars were 30-27 road victors in the only postseason tilt between the teams, which came in a 1996 AFC First-Round Playoff.

Del Rio is 1-2 against Buffalo in his head coaching career. The Bills' Dick Jauron is 2-0 all-time against Jacksonville, including a win for his Bears during the 2001 season, and is 1-0 head-to-head with Del Rio.

WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL

This may be J.P. Losman's last chance to prove to Jauron he is worthy as a starter. Losman (993 passing yards, 3 TD, 4 INT) passed for 173 yards with a touchdown and an interception against the Patriots last week, but most of his numbers came late when the game was already decided. Rookie quarterback Trent Edwards (790 yards, 1 TD, 5 INTs) will remain the backup, but could see some action if Losman performs poorly Sunday in Jacksonville. Losman knows that this game is very important for his career and the team, and has a chance for success against the Jags' 27th-ranked pass defense. Wideout Lee Evans (39 receptions, 2 TD) is the best of the Bills' receiving bunch and is starting to heat up over the last five games (506 yards) after a shaky start to the season. Evans had just 40 yards on four catches against New England, but that's par for the course against the three-time Super Bowl champion Patriots. Evans also has two touchdown catches in his last four games. Josh Reed (32 receptions) and Roscoe Parrish (24 receptions, 1 TD) will get their chances on Sunday. Parrish came away with a 47-yard touchdown catch last week.

All three wideouts have tremendous speed, which is why the health of Jacksonville starting cornerback Rashean Mathis (49 tackles, 1 INT) is very important. Mathis sat out the second half of last Sunday's game versus San Diego after straining his groin. Del Rio decided to keep him out of the second half so the injury would not get worse. Scott Starks (11 tackles) filled in for Mathis and played well against the pass. Veteran safety Sammy Knight (65 tackles, 3 INT) made a game-saving interception in the fourth quarter to stop a driving Chargers squad. Rookie safety Reggie Nelson (47 tackles, 3 INT) is having a great season and ranks second in the NFL among rookies with three interceptions. The Jaguars are not typically solid in pass defense, but with Losman's job on the line and the league's 30th-best passing offense coming to town, they shouldn't have too much trouble. Jacksonville has five interceptions over the last three games.

Buffalo had been riding the strong legs of rookie running back Marshawn Lynch (751 rushing yards, 6 TD) the entire season before a sprained ankle sidelined him for the New England game. The former Cal standout wore a protective boot on his severely sprained left ankle last week, but did not wear it at practice this week. He did not participate in the sessions, however, and is doubtful to play on Sunday. Lynch, who suffered the injury in a Week 10 win over Miami, is fifth in the AFC in rushing with 751 yards, just 44 behind San Diego's LaDanian Tomlinson. Lynch will likely be replaced by Anthony Thomas (43 rushing yards), who had 31 yards on 11 carries against the Patriots. Fred Jackson (16 rushing yards) and rookie Dwayne Wright (77 rushing yards) will fill in sparingly as well.

Jacksonville should be pleased to hear if Lynch is unable to play, but it still wouldn't matter since the 14th-rated run defense is coming off two brilliant performances. Two weeks ago the Jaguars held Titans running back LenDale White to just 12 yards on eight carries before shutting down San Diego's Tomlinson this past weekend. Tomlinson needed 91 rushing yards to join Jacksonville running back Fred Taylor in the 10,000-yard rushing club, but was held to 62 on 16 carries. The Jags suffered a blow when star middle linebacker and leading tackler Mike Peterson (70 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) broke his right hand against San Diego. According to Del Rio, Peterson will undergo surgery to repair the damage before he inserts him back in the lineup. Outside linebacker Daryl Smith (45 tackles) or rookie Justin Durant (7 tackles) will fill in for Peterson on Sunday. Jacksonville still has bulky defensive tackle John Henderson (22 tackles, 1 sack) to help stop the run, while ends Paul Spicer (23 tackles, 5 sacks) and Reggie Hayward (17 tackles, 3.5 sacks) apply the pressure from the outside. Defensive tackle Marcus Stroud (22 tackles, 3 sacks) still has two more games to sit out after being served with a four-game suspension for violating the league's steroids policy.

WHEN THE JAGUARS HAVE THE BALL

Garrard (1,330 passing yards, 8 TD) showed no signs of rust against San Diego after missing three games with an ankle injury. He threw for 189 yards with a pair of scoring strikes for the 26th-best passing offense in the NFL. Garrard has no interceptions in 2007 and will face one of the worst pass defenses in the league this weekend. In his only appearance against Buffalo, back in November of 2006, Garrard passed for 132 yards with two touchdowns and no picks for a 118.0 quarterback rating. Expect the same results this time around even though Garrard has a few mediocre receivers to throw to. Reggie Williams (21 receptions, 5 TD) has been finding the end zone lately, as he has two touchdown catches over his last three games. He had two catches for 62 yards and a score versus the Chargers. The team is 7-2 when the former University of Washington standout has a touchdown reception. Team reception leader Dennis Northcutt (27 receptions, 2 TD) hasn't been used much lately, but had three catches for 36 yards last week. Northcutt leads the Jags with 27 receptions and is always a reliable option. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew (24 receptions) makes his money carrying the ball between the tackles, but can hurt defenses with his hands out of the backfield too.

The Bills are coming off one of their worst games in franchise history, as the Patriots racked up 510 yards, including 383 through the air. Jacksonville doesn't have any wideouts comparable to Randy Moss, but can still hurt defenses with what it has. Moss finished the night with 10 catches for 128 yards and four first-half touchdowns. Buffalo corners Terrence McGee (45 tackles, 2 INT) and Jabari Greer (31 tackles, 2 INT) were overmatched and busy all night Sunday trying to catch up with Moss, Wes Welker and Donte' Stallworth. The load will be a bit lighter this week for sure. Bills safeties Donte Whitner (62 tackles) and George Wilson (31 tackles, 2 INT) combined for eight tackles against New England. Buffalo's usually plays a Cover 2 scheme which opens the middle of the field. Brady recognized that early on and the rest is history. The Bills were riding a four-game winning streak thanks to the solid play from their secondary, but the unit just backfired against the Pats.

Jones-Drew (569 rushing yards, 6 TD) and Taylor (604 rushing yards, 1 TD) make up the NFL's third-best rushing offense for the Jaguars. Jones-Drew averages 5.0 yards per carry and has 23 touchdown runs in his last 24 games. He reached the end zone against the Chargers but ended with just 33 yards on 12 carries. He only has two 100-yard rushing games this season, but will be in search of No. 3 against the Bills' 22nd-rated run defense. Taylor, meanwhile, led the way on Sunday with 85 yards on 20 touches and is logging 77.6 rushing yards per game against the Bills for his career.

Buffalo held the Patriots to 127 yards rushing last week, but that was only because Brady and company were having so much success through the air. Buffalo has two talented linebackers in Angelo Crowell (87 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and John DiGiorgio (73 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT). Crowell leads the team in tackles and combined with DiGiorgio for 20 stops against New England. It was obvious the Bills were busy all night on defense, but the play of both linebackers has been splendid. The front line is anchored by defensive ends Chris Kelsay (32 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and Aaron Schobel (34 tackles, 2.5 sacks). The two combined for five tackles on Sunday for a defense that has only one sack in its previous three games.

FANTASY FOCUS

Fantasy points will not be scored in surplus fashion in this matchup. The only player capable of garnering much success for owners Jones-Drew. He has only two 100-yard rushing games this season, but is due for another one against Buffalo. Jones-Drew has scored in consecutive games, so starting him this week is a must. Fellow running back Fred Taylor should only be used in an emergency situation. He has only one touchdown this season, and the only fantasy value going for him is that he has no less than 11 carries in the team's last five games. Garrard hasn't thrown an interception yet this season and his value rises every week. Interceptions are penalties in the fantasy world, and so far so good for Garrard. As for the Bills, if Lynch is somehow healthy enough to go, insert him immediately into the starting lineup. He may be a step slower because of the ankle problem but still has the strength to power between the tackles. Evans is the best receiver on the Bills and Losman's favorite target. While Losman is still under center, keep Evans in the top spot until Edwards takes over at quarterback.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Sunday's game is a must-win for both teams and unfortunately only one can win. The Jaguars will be that team because they're playing at home, Garrard has been consistent and the defense is shutting down opponents with ease over the past few weeks. Buffalo is already in a bind with Lynch sidelined with an injury and the team hasn't recovered from the New England debacle. Expect the Bills' hangover from the 56-10 loss against the Patriots to carry into Sunday's game. Losman is feeling the pressure from the fans and the coaching staff and this could be his last chance to prove he is a worthy starter in the NFL. However, the Jaguars will not have pity or welcome Losman with open arms. The Jags' defense will be without middle linebacker Peterson, so the Bills will probably attack the center of the field early and often. Expect a lot of work from Garrard in this matchup, as Buffalo is having trouble applying pressure up front lately. The Jags will also pound the football with the tailback tandem of Jones-Drew and Taylor to keep Garrard fresh and injury free.

Best E Casino Predicted Outcome: Jaguars 31, Bills 20

November 23, 2007, at 04:04 PM ET
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