*** College Basketball Preview - Ohio Valley Conference ***
The Best E Casino
By Pat Taggart, College Basketball Staff Writer
OUTLOOK: The casual college basketball fan knows little about the Ohio Valley Conference and may not have heard of some of the teams in the league. It is a safe bet, however, that most have heard of Murray State and Austin Peay, the two teams that have been perennial powers in the conference and have made recent trips to the NCAA Tournament. Once again this season, the Racers and Governors are expected to challenge for the OVC title. It is unlikely that a team from the OVC will earn at at-large bid to the Big Dance, so winning the conference tournament is vital. Tennessee Tech won the 2004-05 regular season title, and with four starters back in the fold there is no reason to expect the team to have a major fall-off. Eastern Kentucky won the OVC tourney a year, and it will be interesting to see if the program can keep winning despite the loss of head coach Travis Ford who left for UMass. Southwest Missouri State lost a number of key contributors from last season, but an influx of juco talent should help. Tennessee State can score with anyone, but the club must play better defensively than it did in 2004-05. Samford needs to score more and maintain its strong defensive play to finish near the top of the standings. As for Eastern Illinois, Morehead State, Jacksonville State and Tennessee-Martin, all four figure to lose more games that they win this season. Still, the OVC appears on the surface to be one of the more wide open leagues in the country, so expect every team to enter the campaign with an abundance of confidence.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Murray State
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. Murray State; 2. Austin Peay; 3. Tennessee Tech; 4. Eastern Kentucky; 5. Southwest Missouri State; 6. Tennessee State; 7. Samford; 8. Eastern Illinois; 9. Morehead State; 10. Jacksonville State; 11. Tennessee-Martin.
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
MURRAY STATE: Last season, Murray State was knocked out of the OVC Tournament in the first round for the first time since 1987. There were many new faces on that team that hadn't been exposed to the big-game atmosphere, and the lack of experience was evident. Now, those players are back with another year under their belts, so Murray State should be better simply for that reason. It certainly doesn't hurt that guard Trey Pearson is back in the fold after earning First-Team All-OVC honors a year ago. Pearson averaged 14.5 ppg and 3.7 apg as a sophomore, and he proved capable of scoring from the perimeter as well as when driving to the basket. Teammate Keith Jenifer will run the club from his point guard position, and the team will benefit tremendously if he can prove to be a solid scoring threat to go along with his top-notch ball- handling skills. The Racers haven't been OVC regular season champs since tying for the top spot in 2000, but this could be the year they get back to the pinnacle.
AUSTIN PEAY: A couple of seniors will be the key to Austin Peay's success this season. Guard Maurice Hampton and center Zac Schlader form one of the better duos in the league, and those two veterans must be outstanding in order for the Govs to win their second regular season title in three years. Hampton shot better than 41 percent from three-point range en route to 14.7 ppg last year, while Schlader netted 12.7 ppg to go along with 6.8 rpg. Hampton showed his explosiveness by tallying 19 or more points on nine occasions in 2004-05, but the team lost seven of those contests. Clearly, the Govs will be most successful if they can achieve balance at the offensive end. Sophomores such as Todd Babington and Fernandez Lockett must play more like experienced vets than young, developing prospects.
TENNESSEE TECH: Tech won the league's regular season title last season and is no doubt still disappointed over its dismissal from the OVC Tournament. While the talent is in place to make another run conference supremacy, the absence of head coach Mike Sutton will be difficult to deal with. Shortly after last season, Sutton was diagnosed with Guillain-Barre syndrome, and it remains to be seen if he will be healthy enough to rejoin the team. Associate head coach Steve Payne is in charge for now, and he will benefit from four returning starters. Derek Stribling may be the best of the bunch, as he averaged 11.8 ppg a year ago and is certainly capable of improving on that figure. Keyon Boyd, Milone Clark and Anthony Fisher are all expected to be key backcourt contributors, and while none put up big offensive numbers a year ago, the talent is certainly there.
EASTERN KENTUCKY: Jeff Neubauer has been a part of a winning program, as the new Eastern Kentucky head coach was on the staff at West Virginia when the Mountaineers reached the Elite Eight last season. Neubauer's first season should go fairly smooth, especially considering that Matt Witt is back in the fold. Will averaged 14.4 ppg and 6.3 apg a year ago and should have been a First Team All-OVC selection. The fact that he wasn't picked for the squad should serve as motivation for Witt, who should get some help in the backcourt from Zach Ingles (11.7 ppg). Alonzo Hird averaged 8.4 rpg last season, and the fact that he shot 65.7 percent from the floor last year is proof that he can score efficiently when given the opportunity. Neubauer wants his team to play a more high-tempo game than it has in the past, and the Colonels appear to be one of the league's better teams on paper.
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI STATE: The Bears lost a ton of close games a year ago, and some key contributors from that squad are gone. The good news is that an influx of juco transfers with some serious talent should keep the program near the top of the standings. One player to keep an eye on is Roy Booker, a transfer from Montana who was forced to sit out last season. Booker is an explosive scorer who can get to the basket with ease, and he figures to be the offense's go-to guy. Paul Paradoski is a strong ball-handler and distributor, and the team will clearly benefit if he can contribute offensively. This may be the most athletic team that Gary Garner has had in his nine years at SMS, and that is certainly a bold statement. The Bears have many question marks as the 2005-06 season begins, but there is reason to expect success.
TENNESSEE STATE: No team in the OVC scored more points than the Tigers last season. Unfortunately, no team gave up more points, and better play at the defensive end will clearly be key to the squad's success this year. The fact that guard Bruce Price is back is exciting for fans of the program, as he averaged 13.7 ppg as a sophomore to go along with 3.4 apg. He will get some help in the backcourt from Wayne Arnold, who averaged 10.1 ppg a year ago on the strength of his 40.1 percent efficiency from behind the arc. Oklahoma transfer Larry Turner is the most intriguing player on the front line, and he will be flanked by Kareen Grant and Eric King. Last year, King posted 10.4 ppg and 6.5 rpg, and there is no reason to expect anything less than the same level of production this season. Tennessee State is the type of team capable of making an unexpected run at the regular season title.
SAMFORD: The Bulldogs struggled to put the ball in the basket last year, as their average of 64.4 ppg is poor by any standard. Fortunately, however, the club was able to excel at the defensive end, limiting foes to just 62.1 ppg, the best mark in the league. Samford features a Princeton-style offense, a deliberate approach predicated on patience and movement without the ball. That philosophy helps to explain the low scoring output, as the club likes to use a great deal of the shot clock. Still, the Bulldogs do return one of the conference's top scoring threats in the person of J. Robert Merritt, one of only two 2004-05 All-OVC First Teamers who will be back on the floor this year. Merritt scored 16.5 ppg a season ago, and his 6-6 frame makes him a difficult player to defend. Randall Gulina netted 10.4 ppg on better than 50 percent shooting from the field last season, impressive efficiency for a guard. What Samford needs to be successful is a couple of front court players to emerge a legitimate offensive threats.
EASTERN ILLINOIS: With 10 players back for the Panthers, there is reason for optimism that they may be able to challenge for their first conference title since 1991 (Mid-Continent). The team possesses a serious scoring threat in the person of Josh Gomes, a 6-3 guard who averaged 16.8 ppg last season. It is possible that he can net 20.0 ppg, as he is a terrific free-throw shooter who always has the ball late in games. Expect Gomes to get some help from reigning OVC Freshman of the Year George Tandy, who exhibited a great deal of physicality on the low block as a rookie. Tandy needs to be more aggressive at the offensive end, but expect that to come with experience. If senior Jake Sinclair can run the point effectively, Eastern Illinois could be better than .500 in league play.
MOREHEAD STATE: Back in 2003, the Eagles tied for the OVC regular season title. Things have seemingly gone down hill since that point, as the lineup is full of fresh faces. A couple of true freshmen are currently competing for a starting guard spot, and that is cause for some concern. Quinton Smith will man one of the backcourt positions, and he averaged 10.8 ppg a year ago on the strength of 90.2 percent shooting from the foul line. No other double-digit performers return, so coach Kyle Macy hopes his rookies and juco transfers are up to the challenge of contributing immediately. Shaun Williams and Ryan Allen are the two juco transfers expected to have the biggest impact, but this Morehead State squad figures to struggle any way you look at it.
JACKSONVILLE STATE: Walker D. Russell is the premier ball distributor in the OVC, as he averaged 7.6 apg a year ago in addition to netting 14.2 ppg. If he was surrounded by better talent, Russell would certainly receive much more attention than he does. Far from just an offensive force, he also recorded 2.2 spg a year ago and should be able to at least maintain all of the impressive stats this season. B.J. Spencer, Russell's backcourt mate, netted 11.5 ppg a year ago, and fellow guard Anthony Wilson contributed 10.9 ppg thanks to his efficient shooting from behind the arc. While the backcourt is certainly capable of putting up strong offensive numbers, the forwards have not been serious threats at the offensive end and must improve significantly in that area. Also, the Gamecocks surrendered 49 percent shooting from the field to opponents a year ago, and that figure is simply unacceptable.
TENNESSEE-MARTIN: Someone has to be picked last, and while UT-Martin is our pick, it is certainly conceivable that the club can finish as high as seventh. Senior swingman Jared Newson tallied 15.4 ppg and 6.8 rpg a year ago, and he is clearly one of the league's top 10 players. Newson will get plenty of offensive support from the team's center, Cleve Woodfork, a 6-9 senior who tallied 12.0 ppg a year ago while shooting 55.1 percent from the field. The Skyhawks will face Louisville to open the season, and while the team seemingly has no chance of even staying close to the Cardinals, the matchup with one of the nation's premier teams will certainly serve as a wake-up call. There are many questions to be answered, including who will run the team from the point, and we will find out soon enough.
